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Archive for Maio, 2014

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HADES

 

Quem não ama o seu deserto
pode amar o colectivo?
São onze da manhã e já a rua
me pergunta:
que te fez sair de casa?

Vagueio pela margem
deste rio sulfuroso, cruzo-me
convosco, dou ouvidos a carteiros,
vendedores de talismãs,
de histórias mal feridas,
de tapetes que ninguém desenrolou.

Acompanham-me os gemidos
emitidos pela tarde.
Contorno os infelizes
automóveis, dou a Lázaro
(que nem se chama Lázaro)
o cigarro do costume, retribuo
a piedade que me olha.

Continuo noite fora, pela borda dos cafés
onde as cartas são batidas por azar
e a morte, triunfante,
convida a novo copo de veneno.

Quando a luz luciferina da manhã
já se comenta nas vielas,
subo a gola do casaco,
procuro uma parede imaculada
e deixo a gotejar esta pergunta:
AQUILES, ONDE ESTÁS?

 

Ulisses Já Não Mora Aqui, Língua Morta, Maio de 2014

 

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“Resumamo-nos e terminemos.

Portugal está pobre; não tem para pagar as dívidas; não tem para se manter; e de ano para ano se deteriora a sua sorte. O presente é um martírio, o futuro, que deve resultar da continuação de tal presente, horroriza a imaginação.

Portugal está desatado; há insociabilidade, há ódios mútuos e acerbos, e que, herdados e transmitidos pela educação, se tornarão ainda mais implacáveis.

Portugal (consequência legítima das duas verdades precedentes) tem a sua moralidade relaxada, ou perdida. O instinto de vida lhe está aconselhando Agricultura, como riqueza, como vínculo, como civilização.”

António Feliciano de Castilho, Felicidade pela Agricultura, 1848

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The only way to summarize this entire situation is that we as a fossil-fuel driven technological civilization are at the end of the road. I do not believe that the powers that be are unaware of the insolvability of these issues. In fact, there is no doubt but that they are highly aware of these and other related issues and have been for a long time. Now we are entering the end game. I believe that the entire Ukraine crises is being used to provide cover for Russia, NATO and American security/military forces to move and position their assets and troops into place in preparation for a collapse of the global economy that simply can’t be avoided, or for that matter, put off for much longer. A surface reading of Russian, European and American political actors would convince anybody that they don’t understand the situation, as Gail states, but don’t be fooled by what they appear to be doing and what the real intentions behind their actions are. It is winding down to the finish line, the joke that the entire global economy has become is about to deliver its final punch line, and when it does I doubt that many people will be laughing.

You may be right. Everywhere we go, we encounter new problems. Every step we take takes energy products and time. Everywhere we look, it looks more like we are approaching the end of the road. The question is only what steps the powers that be will take to try to cover up our problems.

I agree, Gail. As I read your article, I kept waiting for the part where you stated explicitly that we are stuck between a rock and a hard spot. There just aren’t any solutions to the problems that you have elaborated on, and a new-hire in the CIA energy analysis division ought to be able to figure that out.

Billionaire George Soros gave an extensive interview last year where he talked about the impending financial collapse, and specifically talked about the turmoil and bloodshed that would occur in Europe should that collapse come to pass. There are plenty of ethnic tensions and border rivalries in Europe that have been suppressed for a long time during our post WWII period of economic plenty. In a real collapse situation, Europe is set to explode once again like a powder keg. It makes sense to position troops in and around Europe especially close to hotspots like Ukraine IF you are anticipating a collapse and IF you have the goal of maintaining some kind of order in the post-collapse world. Pure speculation on my part, but it is the only thing that makes sense (to me).

We wont have long left to find out. Already approaching midway into 2014 and we can see the wheels well and truly starting to fall off in the real world. Limits to growth played out in the West.

2015 is the point at which aggregate fossil fuel extraction rates head south and when that happens it’s game over. We know this because we witnessed first hand the damage caused as soon as conventional peaked in 2006. We faced $147 in 2007 and then societal chaos 2008 onwards. This time we expect the same again but by an order of magnitude greater as soon as uncoventional oil fails to offset the decline of conventional oil since 2006 which is rapidly approaching.

This time politicians have nothing left when the curve shifts violently downwards off the plateau. Worse it will just keep moving downwards causing panic and chaos.

2006 – conventional peaked
2007 – $147pb obliterating Western consumption debt based economies
2008 – Financial Armageddon led to QE, ZIRP, Desperate attempts re unconventional (fracking, tar sands, shale, deep sea etc.)
2009 – plateau (QE/ZIRP/FRACK)
2010 – plateau ”
2011 – plateau ”
2012 – plateau ”
2013 – plateau ”
2014 – plateau ” Rising pressures in US/EU/Ukraine/Oil Majors/Russia/Iran/China)
2015 – decline in unconventional starts and then total global aggregate decline
2016 – rising prices will further obliterate Western consumption debt economies
2017 – decline accelerates (chaos)
2018 – decline accelerates (more chaos)
2019 – decline accelerates (even more chaos)
2020 – decline accelerates (chaos squared)

If things were bad in 2008 as we “only” reached plateau then what the hell are things going to look like 2015 onwards?


Lindon says: May 8, 2014 at 9:33 am

Agritech — That timeline looks accurate to me, with one exception. Once the declines start to hit us in 2015, the economic obliteration will begin immediately — we won’t have to wait until 2016. By expert usage of the mass media propaganda tools at their disposal, TPTB have done an excellent job so far of keeping the masses uninformed about the dire situation our finance/credit-based economy is in. Once the first fuel shortages start to hit, my guess is that it will be a “shot heard round the world” — they won’t be able to hide it or explain it away. Once investors realize that we’re on the downhill side of peak oil, picking up speed as we rush toward the bottomless pit of that curve, confidence will vanish, panic will set in, chaos squared will be the result.

$147 didn’t hit until 2008, but the price rise started in 2007, and things started falling apart then.

I agree we face a scary future, but it is a little hard to tell precisely what will go wrong–will the problem be high prices or low, or banks failing? One scenario is that oil production drops, and then prices spike, which is the one you are showing. And that may very well be right. But I suppose other scenarios are possible as well. Interest rates spike, and oil prices drop. Banks fail. Perhaps war starts. Or some countries stop accepting payment from other countries (like Japan and Ukraine), reducing total demand.


Do “they” know or do “they” not know? That is the question. An anecdotal contribution to those seeking an answer to this question: On one of the peak oil related websites I frequent daily, there are a number of experts in the oil business, who are currently working in the oil drilling/production business and have been for a long time. One of the regular and highly respected (by me) posters has a consulting company, and his company’s mission is to help businesses prepare for the coming oil shortages. According to this poster, EVERY CEO and business exec he talks to is aware of the dire energy future that our world faces. They don’t talk about it, other than subtly preparing for it there are no real action items that can be put on the to-do list, but they all know about it, they worry about it, and we can assume that many if not most are preparing for it in their own way. It is naïve to assume that highly educated and informed individuals working in government — elected and non-elected — are so stupid that they can see what all of us see coming. They KNOW! The fact that they are not directly addressing the issue is proof that a) they realize that nothing (much) can be done to prevent it, b) they are collectively trying to keep the masses calm and assured even as the wolves close in around us and c) their continued employment in the role they hold almost certainly depends on them not rocking the boat by divulging this information publicly.

 

WORLD IS SLEEPWALKING TO A GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS

Mark C. Lewis, former head of energy research at Deutsche Bank’s commodities unit highlighted three problems facing the global energy system: “very high decline rates” in global production; “soaring” investment requirements “to find new oil”; and since 2005, “falling exports of crude oil globally.”

According to Lt. Col. Davis, scepticism of the oil industry’s bullishness about future production is growing amongst senior Pentagon officials:

“A lot of high-ranking officials are starting to ask exactly these hard questions about the sustainability of the current energy system. You’ve got to remember that for the military, it doesn’t matter what you want to do. What matters is what you can do, and it’s our top priority to make sure we understand potential limits to our operational capability. Even the EIA is forecasting that we could see a peak of shale production by 2018 followed by a plateau and decline, and the Pentagon knows this. But our transport infrastructure is totally dependent on liquid fuels. How are we going to sustain that infrastructure with these decline rates? That’s why serious questions are being asked by high level US military officials as to what exactly the Army, as well as American society in general, is going to do to address this challenge.”

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/jan/17/peak-oil-oilandgascompanies

The military knows – and the banking community at the highest levels knows…

The people who don’t know are the ones who get their news from advertisements on television, claiming that everything is wonderful with respect to oil and gas supplies. There seem to be a lot of folks like that around. Also, the fact that oil prices haven’t gone up recently lulls people into a false sense of security.

No I don’t think corporate millionaires have this chat — but strategists at the top levels of government are most definitely having this chat — their think tanks are modeling outcomes — and their militaries are making preparations.

There is no way that the top leaders are not aware of what is imminent:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/peak-oil-and-the-german-government-military-study-warns-of-a-potentially-drastic-oil-crisis-a-715138.html

Quantitative Easing and ZIRP are the economic policies that they are using to fend off disaster for as long as possible. You do not print trillions of dollars unless you are truly desperate — and aware of what not taking action means.

Exactly.

If we judge the United States government not on its words but on its actions, then we get a clear picture of a government that is highly aware of the dire consequences of oil shortages and taking drastic measures to militarily AND financially stave off collapse for a while longer. QE, ZIRP, the “war on terror”, the Iraq invasion and occupation, all the little proxy wars and now this Ukraine situation — consider them all from the perspective of a global financial elite and a U.S. government that is determined to keep “Business as Usual” going a little longer while at the same time positioning itself for a coming collapse that cannot be avoided.

 

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